Is KMT losing its edge in Taichung mayoral race? Poll point to toss-up

Taichung was originally seen as a Kuomintang (KMT) stronghold in this year's nine-in-one local elections, but the latest opinion poll shows Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Ho Hsin-chun leading the KMT's Johnny Chiang by more than 10 percentage points. Projections incorporating past election results, however, put their vote shares much closer, suggesting the race remains a toss-up.

With Taiwan's nine-in-one local elections entering their final 25 days, the Xinmin Association released a poll on the Taichung mayoral race on Tuesday (3 November). It showed Ho's support at 41.1% and Chiang's at 30.4%, a gap of 10.7 percentage points.

However, Taiwanese polling expert Tai Li-an, who designed the questionnaire and analysed the poll, combined its findings with actual voting results from the past 10 to 15 years to project the outcome. If the election were held now, Ho could win between 48.6% and 51.9% of the vote under different turnout scenarios, while Chiang could secure between 47.1% and 50.3%. The outcome remains uncertain: Chiang could lead by 1.7 percentage points, or Ho could lead by 4.8 percentage points.

Although Ho led in support, 39.7% of respondents expected Chiang to win, compared with 25.4% who expected Ho to prevail. Tai described expectations of victory as a “lagging indicator”, saying Chiang's political experience, the KMT's incumbency advantage and earlier poll results could all influence voters' assessments of the likely winner.

On a change of governing party, 43.3% of respondents felt Taichung should “give another party a try”, while 25.5% wanted the KMT to remain in power. Tai noted that Ho's support was slightly below the proportion hoping for a DPP administration, suggesting she still had potential supporters to win over. Chiang's support, meanwhile, was 4.9 percentage points higher than the proportion who wanted the KMT to continue governing. This showed that his personal appeal exceeded his party's, reflecting problems with the KMT's image.

The poll also showed that broadly defined centrist voters made up more than 40% of Taichung's electorate.

Nearly a quarter of all respondents did not express a view on whether either candidate was suited to serve as mayor. Tai said the Taichung race had generated less interest than those in Taipei and New Taipei. While centrist voters appear to make up a significant pool of potential votes, “it is hard to say how many of them will show up to vote”.

He also said the composition of the poll sample suggested that the wave of support generated by DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen had “some slight” effect on the Taichung race, but it was less pronounced than in Taipei and New Taipei.

Liu Chao-lung, an associate professor in the Department of Public Affairs and Civic Education at National Changhua University of Education, told Lianhe Zaobao that although Taichung had long been regarded as leaning more towards the KMT than the DPP, results from the past few mayoral elections showed that the gap between their core support bases was “not as large as imagined”.

He believes voter turnout would be an important variable affecting the election outcome. Past experience suggested that a subdued campaign and low turnout generally favoured the KMT, while a more heated race and higher turnout could benefit the DPP. Ho's efforts to get Shen to return to Taichung to campaign for her were therefore also aimed at tapping the wave of support for him to energise the race. By contrast, Chiang would benefit more from keeping the campaign low-key, playing down the Shen effect and stressing that Shen was running for mayor of Taipei, which had no direct bearing on Taichung's municipal affairs.

Taichung has 2.29 million eligible voters. Liu estimated that the final margin between the two candidates could be fewer than 50,000 votes. Both sides now had “no room for missteps”, he said, or risk affecting the outcome.

A day before the Xinmin Association released its poll, the KMT caucus in the Taichung City Council published a survey it had commissioned from Fo Guang University's polling centre. It put Chiang's support at 38.3%, ahead of Ho's 28.1% by 10.2 percentage points. An earlier poll released on 12 October by the pro-DPP Taichung Friends of Trust in Taiwan Association showed Chiang narrowly ahead with 34.3%, against Ho's 32.4%.

Responding to the Xinmin Association poll showing him trailing in support, Chiang said polls from different organisations produced different figures and his team would take them all into account. But he stressed that “the most accurate poll is the public's vote”. Ho said the poll reflected Taichung residents' “desire for change”, but that change could become reality only if voters actually cast their ballots.