Through mediation by Qatar, Iran has proposed a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a streamlined version of an earlier seven-day proposal.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday (1 November) that under the latest proposal, the US must implement a series of measures on the first day. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the second day, restoring normal shipping traffic.
He said the US must first meet Iran’s demands, including easing sanctions. A day earlier, he had also expressed hope that the US would remain rational and choose diplomacy, saying Iran was prepared for both defence and diplomacy.
US-Iran consultations are understood to be continuing through Qatar. The US has not indicated whether it accepts the two-day plan.
Officials familiar with the negotiations said on Monday (2 November) that Iranian negotiators had left Qatar on Sunday after concluding talks with Qatari mediators. A draft agreement is being circulated between the two sides, and follow-up talks may be held. (Iran later confirmed on Monday that it is conducting “intensive” indirect exchanges with Washington through mediators.)
Iranian state television reported that a military spokesman warned on Sunday that if military strikes between Iran and the US resume, the fighting could last longer than the previous round of conflict. US President Donald J. Trump would then be unable to determine when the war would end or the terms of a ceasefire.
A spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the same day that Iran’s conflict with the US was not geographically confined. Iran had defined a broad battlefield with the aim of inflicting heavy damage on its enemy.
Whether the US will launch a new round of military strikes against Iran after this Tuesday’s midterm elections is a key focus of attention. US media reported that Trump spoke by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last Saturday to discuss whether and when to intensify strikes on Iran. Netanyahu has been urging Trump to wait until after the midterm elections to attack Iran again, while Trump favours continuing negotiations.
Trump confirmed to reporters on Sunday that he had discussed Iran with Netanyahu, but gave no details. However, at a campaign rally in Iowa that day, he said he might have to hit Tehran hard at some point in the future.
Persian Gulf states fear that renewed attacks by the US and Israel on a now better-prepared Iran could trigger a more destructive war across the Middle East, leaving them to deal with the aftermath.
Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said Iran had learnt from past failures and developed a more sophisticated military strategy, leaving it better prepared for the next round of fighting.
Mohammed al-Basha, an associate fellow in international security at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, also noted that Persian Gulf states believed Iran would be more aggressive next time and would not observe the rules of engagement as it had previously.
Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said on Sunday that the UAE hoped Qatar-led mediation could achieve a diplomatic breakthrough and avert another war between the US and Iran. At the same time, the UAE was preparing for the worst-case scenario.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and negotiations to resolve the Middle East conflict when he met Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in Beijing on Monday. He said China supported Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty and security.
Bagheri said Iran would resolutely defend its security, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resist coercion and threats. It was also willing to engage and negotiate with all parties in pursuit of regional peace and stability.
