Netanyahu emerges as biggest winner for now as Israeli coalition talks risk deadlock

Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority in Israel’s general election.

Both Jewish blocs have also ruled out working with the Arab parties seen as potential “kingmakers”, leaving the coming coalition talks at risk of deadlock. Analysts say another election triggered by a failure to form a government would be the best outcome for Netanyahu.

According to vote counts released by the Central Elections Committee late on Thursday (29 October), Netanyahu’s bloc finished ahead of Eisenkot’s but won only 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Eisenkot’s bloc took 48 seats. Neither side can govern alone and both would need the support of Arab parties to form a majority government.

Turnout among Arab voters reached a record high in this election. The alliance of Arab parties comprising Ra’am and the Joint List won an unprecedented 19 seats, almost double their previous tally of ten.

If Eisenkot’s bloc brought in the Arab parties, it would hold 67 seats, enough to decisively defeat Netanyahu’s bloc.

Yet mainstream Jewish parties have collectively rejected cooperation with the parties holding those 19 crucial seats. Netanyahu and Eisenkot have both ruled out working with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values. Fellow prime ministerial candidates Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman have taken the same position.

Fan Hongda, a visiting scholar at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, told Lianhe Zaobao (LHZB): “Both Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s blocs have declared their intention to establish a Zionist government… With the divide between Jews and Arabs in Israel still so pronounced, it will be very difficult for Arab parties to play a decisive role in forming a government.”

Earlier on Thursday, Netanyahu’s bloc accused the Arab parties of being subject to Qatari interference to influence the election results, and called for an investigation. The alliance of Arab parties and Qatar denied the allegations.

Israel’s election committee also said the claims were baseless. Such reassurances, however, can hardly conceal the deep ethnic divisions in Israeli politics. Netanyahu is deeply wary of Arab and Palestinian parties, fearing that any increase in their power could lead to his removal from office.

In an interview with Reuters, Reichman University politics professor Eytan Gilboa said Netanyahu’s goal in stepping up his verbal attacks on Arab parties was to “delegitimise any Arab-Jewish cooperation”.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said earlier that the allegations must be investigated, but stressed that they must not be used to smear Arab voters exercising their legitimate right to vote.

Herzog will soon have to decide whom to task with forming a government. Although Netanyahu’s bloc is sizeable and holds more seats, he is unlikely to get the first opportunity, as a series of scandals has led figures across the political spectrum to shun him.

Netanyahu has been embroiled in corruption cases in recent years, while his proposed judicial reforms have sparked controversy and mass demonstrations. His poll ratings have remained low following Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, and he has repeatedly faced fierce criticism from allies and opponents alike.

Eyal Mayroz, a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney’s Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies in Australia, said in an interview: “Lawmakers holding more than 60 seats are expected to nominate Eisenkot as prime minister. The president is therefore very likely to give him the first mandate to try to form a government within 28 days.”

Eisenkot is currently the most likely candidate to become prime minister. But forming a government would not be straightforward for him either.

Mayroz noted that Eisenkot’s opposition bloc comprises four parties spanning a wide political spectrum from left to right, with differences that are difficult to bridge. Two firmly oppose working with Arab parties, while Lieberman is also unwilling to join forces with ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.

The left-wing Democrats, led by former Israel Defense Forces deputy chief of staff Yair Golan, are willing to work with Arab parties. But with only eight seats, the party has limited political clout and is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the situation.

Fan noted that, beyond their differences over nationalism, the four parties share another goal: removing Netanyahu from office. Even if they cooperated with his bloc, they would insist on “a Netanyahu bloc without Netanyahu”. That effectively rules out cooperation across the two camps.

“There is some room for cooperation between the two sides, but the difficulties are immense. It would therefore be no surprise if this election ultimately failed to produce a new government,” said Fan.

If no government can be formed, another general election will have to be held. Netanyahu would remain prime minister in the meantime — precisely the best outcome for him, as circumstances would change and he could try to create conditions favourable to himself.

Mayroz said of Netanyahu: “He can do a lot of things to try and to change the outcome of the next election. And the Arabs will not flock to vote as they did this time, and not many Israelis, as in this time, will fly into Israel to vote.”

A commentary in The Times of Israel noted that the 27 October election had offered the opposition an ideal opportunity to oust Netanyahu. Yet he retained his advantage in seats despite difficulties at home and abroad, effectively putting him in an unbeatable position and giving him greater confidence of victory in the next election.