(Brussels, AFP) US President Trump could suffer a major political setback in next week's midterm elections, but few in Europe expect a sweeping Democratic victory to change much.
Since returning to the White House last year, Trump has sent a series of shock waves across Europe by souring relations with Ukraine, imposing additional tariffs on allies and threatening to seize Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory.
Polls suggest US voters could punish Trump's Republican Party in the 3 November midterm elections, handing control of one or even both chambers of Congress to the Democrats. Some hope that a Congress controlled by the opposing party would act as a check on Trump.
EU and NATO officials, however, believe Trump will not rein himself in on the international stage even if the Republicans suffer a crushing defeat, and that US foreign policy will remain unpredictable.
The European Commission declined to comment on the US midterm elections, saying only that it would await the results. EU officials are also understood not to have focused on the elections in closed-door meetings.
One senior EU diplomat suggested three reasons for the bloc's muted response to the US midterms: the outcome is genuinely hard to predict; officials dare not place too much hope in a change of course; and even a Democratic wave would have an uncertain impact on US foreign policy.
Trump's renewed criticism of Ukraine and overtures to Russia ahead of the midterms have deeply unsettled Europe. A Democratic victory would bring more voices supporting Kyiv into the US Congress. But the EU is not counting on Washington to step up aid to Ukraine, and is instead seeking support from other countries, including the UK, Canada and Japan.
Europe is equally pessimistic about tariffs. Officials noted that after Trump's first term ended, his Democratic successor, President Joe Biden, took months to remove the additional steel tariffs Trump had imposed on the EU.
NATO officials, meanwhile, said they did not expect the US midterm elections to affect the findings of the Pentagon's review of troop deployments in Europe. The review could be released in December, and the US is widely expected to reduce its troop presence in Europe.
Europe is stepping up efforts to take greater responsibility for its own defence. One European diplomat said: “Whatever the outcome, we'll keep going.”
European allies also fear that things could get worse after the midterms. If the Republicans retain control of Congress, Trump could become even more unrestrained. If they lose, he could stir up trouble abroad — such as escalating the US-Iran conflict or increasing pressure on Ukraine — to divert attention from his domestic difficulties.
Bruce Stokes, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank said: “Trump has demonstrated they can't stand not to be the centre of attention. If that means he needs to do more on the world stage, positively or negatively, that may be what ends up happening.”
