[Big read] Small state, national stakes: parties tread carefully in Melaka election

The Registrar of Societies Malaysia unexpectedly announced on 20 October that it was revoking the registration of the opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Two days later, the Kuala Lumpur High Court granted PN's application to stay the revocation by the Registrar of Societies Malaysia pending the conclusion of a judicial review of the case.

The legal tussle over PN's valuable political brand instantly intensified the Melaka election, abruptly changing the landscape for Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and PN as the three coalitions geared up for battle.

The Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu), a PN component party, had earlier lodged a complaint with the Registrar of Societies Malaysia, which then required PN to explain, under the law, why its registration should not be revoked. After reviewing PN's explanation, the registrar found its grounds insufficient and decided to revoke PN's registration.

With nominations for the Melaka election on 31 October and polling on 14 November, the decision undoubtedly disrupted PN's election plans, prompting it to seek a stay from the High Court.

Malaysian political observers say the change may not necessarily disadvantage PN's component parties.

Political commentator Tee Beng Lee told Lianhe Zaobao that members including the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), the Malaysian People's Movement Party, the National Vision Party (Wawasan), the Homeland Fighters' Party and the Malaysian Indian People Party, as well as Bersatu, whose relationship with PN remains unclear, could use the deregistration to rally supporters and attract sympathy votes from swing voters.

Tee noted similarities between PN losing its registration on the eve of nominations for the Melaka election and PH's failure to secure registration before the general election in May 2018.

Unable to register the coalition at the time, PH's component parties agreed to contest under the People's Justice Party's (PKR) “blue eye” logo. They successfully rallied support and won more than half the seats in the lower house of parliament, forming the federal government with Sabah's Warisan, which won eight seats. BN lost federal power for the first time after 60 years in government.

Wong Chin Huat, a political scientist at Malaysia's Sunway University, also believes the development will have little substantive impact on PN's parties.

“The biggest advantage of PN's flag is its ability to act as a buffer, attracting Muslim and non-Muslim swing voters who cannot accept PAS's conservative stance but are comfortable with Bersatu. Since the rupture between PAS and Bersatu, very few such voters remain in the opposition camp.”

Wong said in an interview that PN’s continued existence as a legally registered coalition was immaterial. As long as UMNO and PAS continued to cooperate, PN parties such as PAS would still win the support of most Malay swing voters in the constituencies they contested. Only a small proportion of these voters would turn to Bersatu or the Malaysian United Part (Bersama).

“If UMNO and PAS do not cooperate, the contest will essentially be about each camp's brand and its ability to mobilise its base. PN's flag would not make much difference either,” said Wong.

He added that PN's flag had almost no influence on Chinese voters. Whether Indian voters who previously supported PH switched to PAS and its allies would depend on whether the Indian community's dissatisfaction with PH's federal policies had been eased, rather than whether the parties contested under PN's flag.

Regardless of whether PN loses its registration, UMNO and PAS had already demonstrated increasingly close tactical cooperation in this year's Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections. Whether they will deepen that cooperation in Melaka is being closely watched.

Francis Hutchinson, a senior fellow and coordinator of the Malaysia Studies Programme at Singapore's ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, believes cooperation between UMNO and PAS in Melaka does not mean the two will reach a broader or longer-term nationwide agreement.

Hutchinson told Lianhe Zaobao (LHZB) that any cooperation would have to be on UMNO's terms. This means PAS and its allies would get relatively few seats to contest, rather than an agreement between equals of the kind reached when the two parties formed National Concord.

Hutchinson also noted that the experience of this year's Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections showed that avoiding direct competition did benefit both parties tactically. This was particularly true in Malay-majority constituencies, where it could prevent a severe split in the Malay vote from benefiting a third party.

The previous Melaka election, held in November 2021, was one of the most fiercely contested on record. A total of 112 candidates vied for 28 state seats, an average of four candidates per seat. There were six-way contests in three seats, five-way contests in five, four-way contests in nine and three-way contests in the remaining 11.

BN won 21 seats — 18 for UMNO, two for the Malaysian Chinese Association and one for the Malaysian Indian Congress — securing a two-thirds majority. PH took five seats, while PN's Bersatu won two. PAS won none.

Tee noted that BN secured 21 seats with less than 40% of the vote. Eleven of those seats were won by majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes, with a margin of just 79 votes in Serkam.

He said BN had benefited entirely from the fragmentation of votes in multi-cornered contests, leaving it uneasy about the new electoral landscape. “That is why BN also hopes to cooperate with PAS this time, to retain these narrowly won seats.”

Wong cautioned, however, that PAS's grassroots campaigning strength in Melaka was no weaker than BN's. In the November 2022 general election, for example, PAS and PH each won three of Melaka's six parliamentary seats, while BN came away empty-handed.

He believes that if BN chooses to go it alone rather than cooperate with PAS, the latter is fully capable of capitalising on the situation to make a breakthrough and win more Melaka state seats than any other party.

The shifting electoral landscape is also evident in PH's and BN's repeated adjustments to the timing of their candidate announcements and strategic plans.

Azman Abidin, political secretary to Prime Minister and PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim, said on 11 October that PH would announce its candidates on 18 October. However, PKR secretary-general Fuziah Salleh clarified on 16 October that Anwar would announce the candidates for her party and all other PH component parties together on 24 October.

On BN's side, Melaka's state chairman of BN Ab Rauf Yusoh said at the launch of its election machinery on 17 October that the coalition would announce its candidates and electoral partners on 28 October.

But on 21 October, BN and UMNO chairman Ahmad Zahid told reporters after an event in Melaka that BN would bring forward its candidate announcement to 24 October.

By moving it four days earlier to coincide with PH's announcement, BN sent a clear signal of political challenge and psychological one-upmanship.

Ahmad Zahid also confirmed at the time that seat negotiations between BN, PAS and its allies had concluded. BN would contest 21 seats, leaving the remaining seven to PAS and its allies.

However, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim bin Tuan Man said on 23 October that Ahmad Zahid's statement was not final, as PN was still negotiating with BN for another one or two seats. PN is expected to announce its candidates on 28 or 29 October.

According to Tee, this suggested that the camps' electoral manoeuvring and alliance-building could continue right up to nomination day.

Beyond the manoeuvring between parties, a royal and political controversy that has been unfolding since April in neighbouring Negeri Sembilan has added uncertainty to the Melaka contest.

Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Ismail Lasim of BN was earlier publicly reprimanded by the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan, Muhriz Munawir. The incident sparked widespread discussion in Malaysia about how UMNO officials in government manage relations with royalty.

Political observers are sharply divided over whether the Negeri Sembilan controversy will affect the Melaka election.

Azmil Mohd Tayeb, an assistant professor of political science at the School of Social Sciences at Universiti Sains Malaysia, was unequivocal in an interview: “No, it will not affect the Melaka election.”

Azmil said the Negeri Sembilan controversy was a special case tied to the state's distinctive customary law of the Minangkabau and royal system. “Melaka has no sultan and the dynamics are different.”

Hutchinson also believes the Negeri Sembilan dispute will have no significant direct impact on how Melaka voters cast their ballots.

He noted that, to Melaka voters, Ismail Lasim was simply the head of government in the neighbouring state. “Melaka voters are likely to be more concerned with the performance of the state government, the candidates before them and the competing platforms of BN, PH and the opposition.

“So I would see it as an unwelcome distraction for BN rather than an issue that would be determinant in the Melaka election.”

Wong, however, believes developments in Negeri Sembilan will indirectly hurt BN's electoral performance in Melaka. “The logic of governing is that those in charge should not stir up trouble. Friction between officials and the institution will certainly cost them support; the only question is how much.”

He added that Naning in northern Melaka borders Negeri Sembilan, and the populations on both sides share a Minangkabau cultural background. It would therefore be unsurprising if developments in Negeri Sembilan had cultural and psychological spillover effects.

Tee believes the Melaka election offers an excellent opportunity to gauge the actual impact of the Negeri Sembilan controversy on UMNO's and BN's electoral prospects.

“If the impact is small or non-existent, that would be good news for UMNO ahead of next year's general election, showing that the Malay community can clearly distinguish local incidents from national issues. But if UMNO's performance in Melaka is badly hit, its dream of regaining federal power in next year's general election may be difficult to realise.”

Beyond the three major coalitions, several emerging political forces hope to use the coming Melaka election to grow and forge a third path.

They include Bersama, led by former PKR leaders Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi, who broke away from the party, and Wawasan, which former Bersatu heavyweight Hamzah bin Zainudin established after leaving the party and which is affiliated with PN.

Bersama tested the waters in the Johor election but failed to win any seats. It then strategically sat out the Negeri Sembilan election to concentrate its resources on Melaka.

The Wawasan also failed to win a seat in Johor, but went on to win three of the four seats it contested in Negeri Sembilan, demonstrating some grassroots momentum.

Hutchinson believes Bersama is trying to carve out political space beyond the existing coalitions, appealing to urban middle-class and reform-minded voters who are dissatisfied with PH's performance in government but also dislike the conservative positions of BN or PAS.

“Bersama plans to field 15 candidates in Melaka. This shows it believes establishing a long-term political identity and brand is more important at this stage than trying to win more seats.”

He added that Wawasan had a clearer strategic advantage. Its close tactical alignment with PAS allows it to draw on the latter's existing grassroots election machinery, making it increasingly likely to benefit directly from UMNO-PAS cooperation and the carving up of their respective territories.

Turning to Bersatu, which lost its leading position in two successive state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, Hutchinson said bluntly that the party was facing an unprecedented crisis.

With its rift with PAS and the departure of party heavyweights, Bersatu is steadily losing allies and core leaders. Its potential Malay support base also overlaps heavily with those of PAS and Wawasan.

“In today’s political marketplace, Bersama is trying to create a new niche, Wawasan has attached itself to an existing bloc, while Bersatu is struggling to demonstrate that it remains politically relevant,” Hutchinson concluded.

Wong believes Wawasan is essentially PAS's “political sidekick”. Bersatu, seeking to survive, may pursue limited understandings with PH to avoid direct contests.

Bersama, meanwhile, is not seeking a sweeping victory in Melaka. Its core aim is to retain as many candidates' election deposits as possible and convince voters that it still has a place in a future general election.

He believes that if Bersama secures a sizeable share of Malay votes in Melaka, some non-Malay PH candidates facing difficult contests in mixed constituencies may be inclined to cooperate with it in future.

Tee used an examination analogy to sum up the parties' mindsets: “For BN, PN and PH, the Melaka election is only a midterm exam. Even if they do badly, they will still have the resources to try again in the final exam — the general election. But for Bersama, Bersatu and even Wawasan, Melaka is the final exam that will determine whether they advance, are held back or even survive.”

In his view, if Bersama loses all 15 seats it contests in Melaka and forfeits its deposits in all of them, it would signal a bleak political future.

He believes Bersatu must use actual votes this time to show how much political relevance it retains after parting ways with PAS.

“If Bersatu's ability to damage PN is close to zero, that would effectively mean party president Muhyiddin Yassin could end his political career before the general election. As for Wawasan, although UMNO is trying hard to marginalise it, its chances of political survival will not be too low as long as PAS backs it.”

As polling day on 14 November approaches, the probing, concessions, manoeuvring and divisions among the camps in Melaka are far more than an isolated local drama. They are a prelude to a realignment of national political power. As the parties tread carefully, Malaysians are watching closely to see how the contest in Melaka could once again herald a shift in the country's political direction.